Background
After the Battle of Chibi, the Sun-Liu alliance drove Cao Cao back north, but the spoils were distributed asymmetrically: Liu Bei had not long left Jiangxia before he successively acquired the four southern commanderies of Jing'nan, and then also borrowed Nanjun (the so-called Jiejingzhou), while Jiangdong actually retained only a handful of footholds around Jiangxia. Eastern Wu generally held that since Jiangdong had borne the primary war costs of Chibi, the core area of Jingzhou ought to be returned. Lu Su at this point took over from the late Zhou Yu as the overall manager of Eastern Wu's Liu Bei affairs, and thus the political mission of demanding Jingzhou back fell entirely onto his shoulders. In the Romance's narrative, from chapter fifty-two through chapter sixty-six, Lu Su made five dedicated trips to Jingzhou; each time he appeared in the posture of "friendly negotiation," yet each time Zhuge Liang and Liu Bei deflected him with a different excuse. This pattern of "mild yet unyielding tug-of-war" formed the main thread of the entire Sun-Liu relationship after Chibi.
Principal Figures
Lu Su throughout this storyline was always the tone-setter: on his first visit he told Zhou Yu, "at present we have yet to determine victory and defeat with Cao Cao — how can we devour each other ourselves?" [c:18061], setting the keynote of "prioritize peaceful negotiation" for the entire round of talks. Zhuge Liang bore the role of primary deflector: he first countered with "the land of Jing-Xiang was the heritage of Liu Jing-sheng [Liu Biao] — what objection can there be to an uncle supporting a nephew?" [c:18063], then after Liu Qi's death offered a written promise of "return it once we obtain Xichuan" [c:18064], and finally in chapter sixty-six simply instructed Liu Bei to "weep aloud" and use an emotional offensive to dismiss Lu Su [c:18066]. Sun Quan and Zhou Yu in the background kept pressing Lu Su to increase the pressure; after Zhou Yu took Nanjun he "submitted a memorial to the Lord of Wu requesting Lu Su to go reclaim Jingzhou" [c:18065]. Guan Yu in the last episode directly refused to sign, turning the diplomatic confrontation into a military crisis through the sword rather than the pen [c:18069].
Central Issue
The surface topic across the several rounds of negotiations was "territory," but the real subject was "political legitimacy." Eastern Wu argued that "the nine commanderies of Jingzhou ought in all respects to belong to Eastern Wu," citing the troops and provisions Jiangdong had committed at Chibi [c:18062]; Liu Bei's side countered with "Han imperial kinsman" and "Liu Qi still lives," emphasizing that Jingzhou was originally Liu Biao's family heritage and belonged to neither side's war plunder [c:18063]. When Liu Qi died of illness and Liu Bei had moreover seized the territory of Hanzhong, Jiangdong persisted in demanding redemption of the oral agreement — "return it once Xichuan is obtained" [c:18065] — whereupon the negotiations were no longer a dispute over morality but a breach-of-contract dispute over an overdue commitment. This discursive shift from "moral claim" to "breach of contract" is the most critical escalation of the entire Lusutaojingzhou storyline.
Political Consequences
Five rounds of negotiation produced not a single concrete result, but each deepened the mutual distrust between the two sides' decision-makers. Sun Quan's move from "mild dunning" to "detaining Zhuge Jin's family to apply pressure" [c:18068] was Jiangdong's critical escalation after diplomatic instruments were exhausted. Guan Yu in chapter sixty-six brandished his sword in direct refusal before Zhuge Jin [c:18069], nailing in the minds of Jiangdong's senior leadership the verdict that "Liu Bei's side has broken its word." Lu Su's conciliatory line thereby lost its credibility, and the hardline position of Lv Meng and Lu Xun — who advocated taking Jingzhou by force — began to gain ground. A few years later, Lv Meng's white-cloak river-crossing (Lvmengbaiyidujiang) and seizure of Jingzhou can be understood as the inevitable reaction to Lu Su's prolonged diplomatic failure.
Counterfactual Analysis
Had Liu Bei, after conquering Yizhou, immediately returned some commanderies in accordance with the oral agreement, the Sun-Liu alliance might have survived into the era of Zhugeliangbeifa, sparing Shuhan from having to face both a northern Caowei front and an eastern Jiangdong front simultaneously. Had Lu Su on his very first Jingzhou visit been persuaded by Zhou Yu to use force, and had Jiangdong moved forcibly to seize Nanjun while Cao Cao had not yet recovered his strength, success was not guaranteed — but it would at least have avoided the total blowup after years of exhausting diplomacy. Looking at the overall trajectory of this storyline, the figure who must not be overlooked is Guan Yu: his hard-line posture as Jingzhou's military commander [c:18069] effectively "shut the door first" on Liu Bei's faction in the diplomatic realm, making any buffer solution impossible to implement. A more restrained Jingzhou garrison commander might have left Lu Su space for two or three more mediation attempts.